Electric Strategy: Evolutionary Game Analysis of Pricing Strategies for Battery-Swapping Electric Logistics Vehicles

Driven by the urgent need to decarbonize the logistics sector—where conventional vehicles exhibit high energy consumption and emissions, posing significant environmental sustainability challenges—electrification represents a pivotal strategy for reducing emissions and achieving sustainable urban freight transport. Despite rising global electric vehicle sales, the penetration rate of electric logistics vehicles (ELVs) remains comparatively low, impeding progress toward sustainable logistics objectives. Battery-swapping mode (BSM) has emerged as a potential solution to enhance operational efficiency and economic viability, thereby accelerating sustainable adoption. This model improves ELV operational efficiency through rapid battery swaps at centralized stations. This study constructs a tripartite evolutionary game model involving government, consumers, and BSM-ELV manufacturers to analyze market dynamics under diverse strategies. Key considerations include market scale, government environmental benefits, battery leasing/purchasing costs, lifecycle cost analysis (via discount rates), and resource efficiency (reserve battery ratio λ). MATLAB-2021b-based simulations predict participant strategy evolution paths. Findings reveal that market size and manufacturer expectations significantly influence governmental and manufacturing strategies. Crucially, incorporating discount rates demonstrates that battery leasing reduces consumer enterprises’ initial investment, enhancing economic sustainability and cash flow while offering superior total cost of ownership. Furthermore, gradual reduction of government subsidies effectively stimulates market self-regulation, incentivizes leasing adoption, and bolsters long-term economic/operational sustainability. Market feedback can guide policy adjustments toward fiscally sustainable support mechanisms. This study proposes the following management implications for advancing sustainable logistics: 1. Governments should phase out subsidies systematically to foster market resilience; 2. Manufacturers must invest in BSM R&D to improve efficiency and resource circularity; 3. Consumer enterprises can achieve economic benefits and emission reductions by adopting BSM-ELVs.