Global Epidemiology of Vector-Borne Parasitic Diseases: Burden, Trends, Disparities, and Forecasts (1990–2036)

Vector-borne parasitic diseases (VBPDs), including malaria, schistosomiasis, leishmaniasis, Chagas disease, African trypanosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, and onchocerciasis, impose a significant global health burden. This study analyzes the global disease burden of VBPDs from 1990 to 2021 using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data and projects trends to 2036. Metrics include prevalence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized rates (ASRs) across regions, sexes, age groups, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) levels. Key findings reveal persistent disparities: malaria dominated the burden (42% of cases, 96.5% of deaths), disproportionately affecting sub-Saharan Africa. Schistosomiasis ranked second in prevalence (36.5%). While African trypanosomiasis, Chagas disease, lymphatic filariasis, and onchocerciasis declined significantly, leishmaniasis showed rising prevalence (EAPC = 0.713). Low-SDI regions bore the highest burden, linked to environmental, socioeconomic, and healthcare access challenges. Males exhibited greater DALY burdens than females, attributed to occupational exposure. Age disparities were evident: children under five faced high malaria mortality and leishmaniasis DALY peaks, while older adults experienced complications from diseases like Chagas and schistosomiasis. ARIMA modeling forecasts divergent trends: lymphatic filariasis prevalence nears elimination by 2029, but leishmaniasis burden rises across all metrics. Despite overall progress, VBPDs remain critical public health threats, exacerbated by climate change, drug resistance, and uneven resource distribution. Targeted interventions are urgently needed, prioritizing vector control in endemic areas, enhanced surveillance for leishmaniasis, gender- and age-specific strategies, and optimized resource allocation in low-SDI regions. This analysis provides a foundation for evidence-based policy and precision public health efforts to achieve elimination targets and advance global health equity.