Mapping the Spatial Sensitivity of Aquitard Hydraulic Parameters on Pumping Test Drawdowns

This study investigates the spatial and temporal sensitivity of aquitard hydraulic conductivity and specific storage on drawdowns in pumping tests. The objective is to understand which area of the aquitard is represented by drawdowns in different observation wells. A three-layered MODFLOW 6 model was used to simulate pumping tests on a circular Voronoi grid for three transmissivity scenarios and both confined and semiconfined top boundary conditions. A local sensitivity analysis was performed using PEST++ to determine how perturbations in hydraulic conductivity and specific storage of the aquitard affect head changes at observation wells in the pumped and overlying aquifer. Results indicate that for observation wells in the pumped aquifer, sensitivity forms an elliptical shape that is symmetrical around the observation well and the pumping well for all scenarios. The sensitivity map for the observation well in the overlying aquifer depends on the transmissivity ratio between both aquifers. It favors the area surrounding the pumping well if the transmissivity of the pumped aquifer is lower than that of the overlying aquifer. Conversely, with higher transmissivity in the pumped aquifer, sensitivity primarily lies around the observation well. Sensitivity patterns evolve over time, expanding the area of influence and shifting the sensitivity toward the observation well for a semiconfined top boundary. These findings are relevant for understanding the information regarding aquitard heterogeneity that is present in pumping test drawdowns and optimizing pumping test design.