Spatiotemporal Patterns, Driving Mechanisms, and Response to Meteorological Drought of Terrestrial Ecological Drought in China

Ecological drought in terrestrial systems is a vegetation-functional degradation phenomenon triggered by the long-term imbalance between ecosystem water supply and demand. This process involves nonlinear coupling of multiple climatic factors, ultimately forming a compound ecological stress mechanism characterized by spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Based on meteorological and remote sensing datasets from 1982 to 2022, this study identified the spatial distribution and temporal variability of ecological drought in China, elucidated the dynamic evolution and return periods of typical drought events, unveiled the scale-dependent effects of climatic factors under both univariate dominance and multivariate coupling, as well as deciphered the response mechanisms of ecological drought to meteorological drought. The results demonstrated that (1) terrestrial ecological drought in China exhibited a pronounced intensification trend during the study period, with the standardized ecological water deficit index (SEWDI) reaching its minimum value of −1.21 in February 2020. Notably, the Alpine Vegetation Region (AVR) displayed the most significant deterioration in ecological drought severity (−0.032/10a). (2) A seasonal abrupt change in SEWDI was detected in January 2003 (probability: 99.42%), while the trend component revealed two mutation points in January 2003 (probability: 96.35%) and November 2017 (probability: 43.67%). (3) The drought event with the maximum severity (6.28) occurred from September 2019 to April 2020, exhibiting a return period exceeding the 10-year return level. (4) The mean values of gridded trend eigenvalues ranged from −1.06 in winter to 0.19 in summer; 87.01% of the area exhibited aggravated ecological drought in winter, with the peak period (88.51%) occurring in January. (5) Evapotranspiration (ET) was identified as the dominant univariate driver, contributing a percentage of significant power (POSP) of 18.75%. Under multivariate driving factors, the synergistic effects of ET, soil moisture (SM), and air humidity (AH) exhibited the strongest explanatory power (POSP = 19.21%). (6) The response of ecological drought to meteorological drought exhibited regional asynchrony, with the maximum correlation coefficient averaging 0.48 and lag times spanning 1–6 months. Through systematic analysis of ecological drought dynamics and driving mechanisms, a dynamic assessment framework was constructed. These outcomes strengthen the scientific basis for regional drought risk early-warning systems and spatially tailored adaptive management strategies.