Progress and policies to achieve the zero pollution action plan and EU 2024/2881 PM2.5 targets in Northern Italy

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a major contributor to air pollution-related mortality in Europe. The European Zero Pollution Action Plan (ZPAP) aims to reduce PM2.5-attributable deaths by 55% by 2030 relative to 2005, while the EU Directive 2024/2881 states the new Ambient Air Quality targets. The open questions are: (1) has the ZPAP and the EU Directive 2024/2881 target for PM2.5 already been reached? If not, (2) will the current policy allow the ZPAP and EU 2024/2881 target for PM2.5 to be met in 2030, or (3) is an additional policy needed? This work proposes a methodology to estimate the attributable deaths caused by PM2.5 exposure in 2005, 2019 (question 1), and 2030 projection, considering the current legislation (CLE2030, question 2) and a policy (OPT2030, question 3), solution of a multi-objective problem that minimizes PM2.5 concentration and measure costs. The methodology was tested on the Po Valley in Northern Italy, one of the most polluted areas in Europe. Results show that premature deaths decreased by 36% on average from 2005 to 2019. By 2030, under current legislation (CLE2030), 18 of the 29 major cities are projected to meet the ZPAP target, while only 2 are expected to comply with the PM2.5 target of the Directive (EU) 2024/2881. With the implementation of additional measures (OPT2030), the number of cities meeting the ZPAP target rises to 26, and 13 are projected to achieve the PM2.5 limit recommended by the Directive (EU) 2024/2881.