Forest carbon program enrollment in Pennsylvania falls below survey predictions

Abstract Several US programs provide smaller-scale forest landowners access to carbon markets where they can earn payments in exchange for stricter timber management. We study participation in one program—the Family Forest Carbon Program—and find that 1% of likely eligible owners in five high-enrollment counties in Pennsylvania enrolled in the first 3 years, less than what landowner surveys predict. Comparisons of enrolled parcels with those of the likely eligible population reveal a similar average extent of harvesting over the 35 years prior to enrollment. Under the current owner, however, enrolled parcels had 50% more harvesting than comparable parcels. We find that more harvesting in the past 20 years reduces harvesting in the present, suggesting that, absent the Program, enrolled parcels might have less future harvests. The findings indicate that expanding carbon market access is one challenge, enrolling landowners, especially those with high offset potential, is another.