Species-Specific Responses of Kiwifruit Seed Germination to Climate Change Using Classifier Modeling

Climate change is reshaping plant reproductive processes, particularly at the vulnerable seed germination stage. This study examines the germination responses of four <i>Actinidia</i> species (<i>A. rufa, A. latifolia, A. deliciosa,</i> and <i>A. setosa</i>) under controlled experimental conditions, integrating empirical germination data with classifier modeling to predict species-specific responses under future climate scenarios. Unlike traditional species distribution models (SDMs), our classifier approach incorporates physiological dormancy mechanisms and key environmental cues such as chilling requirements, temperature fluctuations, and drought stress. Results reveal significant interspecific differences: <i>A. rufa</i> exhibited strong ecological plasticity, maintaining stable germination under warming and drought, while <i>A. deliciosa</i> displayed extreme sensitivity to warming, with germination dropping below 25% due to its strict chilling requirement. <i>A. latifolia</i> showed latitude-dependent vulnerability, with southern populations experiencing reduced germination under warming conditions, and <i>A. setosa</i> demonstrated complex dormancy patterns with higher germination at high elevations. The predictive accuracy of our models was validated against long-term field data, underscoring their robustness in forecasting climate-induced germination shifts. These findings highlight the need for targeted breeding programs to develop <i>A. deliciosa</i> cultivars with reduced chilling requirements and suggest <i>A. rufa</i> as a strong candidate for ecological restoration under future warming scenarios. By refining climate impact assessments through physiological modeling, this study provides valuable insights for kiwifruit conservation, agricultural adaptation, and broader plant-climate interactions under global warming.