The Differential Effects of Bidirectional Urban–Rural Mobility on Agricultural Economic Resilience: Evidence from China

The bidirectional flow of population between urban and rural areas, not limited to rural-to-urban migration, influences the sustainable development of agricultural economic resilience in multiple ways. This study employs panel data from 31 provincial-level regions in China spanning 2017–2022 to comprehensively examine the impact of bidirectional urban–rural mobility on diverse dimensions of agricultural economic resilience, while further investigating its underlying mechanisms. Benchmark regression shows that the bidirectional urban–rural mobility exerts a suppressive effect on the agricultural economic resilience. Mechanism analyses indicate that such mobility contributes to strengthening agricultural economic resilience by catalyzing land-scale operational efficiency and amplifying labor productivity gains and that the advancement of smart agriculture technologies effectively mitigates the inhibitory impacts of bidirectional mobility on agricultural economic resilience. Furthermore, according to heterogeneity analysis, the mobility exerts a suppressive effect on the resistance (Res.) and reconstruction (Recons.) of agricultural economic resilience, while concurrently enhancing its restoration (Rest.). Meanwhile, the bidirectional mobility has significantly impeded the agricultural economic resilience of the eastern, central, and western regions, as well as the primary grain-producing areas, production and marketing balance areas, and the primary grain-selling areas. Further investigation reveals that the reverse mobility has a positive effect on the resistance but a negative effect on its restoration and reconstruction.