Public opinion dynamics under pre-war tension and martial law: a local community perspective

The wartime has significantly complicated the functioning of local communities, requiring local authorities to respond to emerging challenges, involve local businesses and residents in strategic planning, socio-economic development, and preparation for post-war recovery. In this regard, local public opinion survey is particularly relevant, as it allows for tracking changes in citizens’ subjective assessments and provides local authorities with relevant information for efficient decision-making. This article aimed to analyze the changes in residents’ subjective attitudes toward their community, assessment of the current situation, and future expectations, using the case of the Pyriatyn community (Poltava region, Ukraine). The empirical basis of the study includes the results of four waves of representative surveys conducted in February 2022, May 2023, February 2024, and November 2024 in Pyriatyn community (total sample size: N = 2058). The sample is representative by age and gender. Survey method: face-to-face. The analysis employed descriptive statistics, Pearson’s χ² test, and graphical methods. Findings highlight the variability of public opinions. There was an increase in positive assesments of the community in 2024 compared to 2022. However, subjective evaluations and expectations did not show consistent patterns based on respondents’ gender or age. Uncertainty in the assessment of the current situation increased, while expectations for positive future change declined from 73% to 61%. At the same time, respondents evaluated situation at the national level more negatively than in their community. Significant increase of optimistic assessments of Ukraine’s development was recorded in 2023, both in the results of the 2nd wave in Pyriatyn community and in national surveys. This is a mark of broader societal trends. Optimism prevailed in community-related expectations for change. According to three waves of the survey in Pyriatyn community, one-third of respondents attributed both positive and negative expectations to the implementation of state-level reforms. However, no dominant rationale was found behind either optimistic or pessimistic expectations. Across the survey waves, responses were distributed fairly evenly among three or four alternatives, indicating a lack of understanding who drives local development and how residents can influence development of their community.