Impacts of climate change and human activity on the potential distribution of Xanthoceras sorbifolium Bunge in China

Xanthoceras sorbifolium Bunge ( X . sorbifolium ) is an economically significant woody oil plant. With abundant resource diversity, X . sorbifolium has remarkable value in edible, medicinal, ornamental and scientific aspects. Nevertheless, current research on the habitat distribution of X . sorbifolium and the eco-environmental factors that affect its suitability remains insufficient. This study initially identified 38 variables that potentially influence the spatial distribution of X . sorbifolium , including bioclimate, soil, topography, land use and land cover change, and human footprint (HF) variables. After screening via Spearman's correlation coefficient and the jackknife method, 19 variables were ultimately identified. Based on the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model, this study developed three separate models to analyze how climate change and human activities affect the potential geographic distribution of X . sorbifolium. The analysis focused on three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585) across both the 2050 s and 2090 s. The results indicated that soil type, precipitation of the wettest month, topsoil pH, altitude, and HF are the main factors influencing the distribution of X . sorbifolium . Human activities are projected to diminish the suitable habitats for X . sorbifolium under current climate conditions. Climate change is anticipated to curtail suitable areas across under most scenarios, except SSP585 in the 2050 s and SSP126 in the 2090 s. Under climate change, the future distribution center of X . sorbifolium is expected to shift northeastard under the SSP126 and SSP370 scenarios, southwestard along the horizontal gradient under the SSP585 scenario, and to lower altitudes along the vertical gradient. The findings of this study should provide a positive reference value for the long-term conservation and large-scale cultivation of X . sorbifolium. • We predicted the suitable habitat of Xanthoceras sorbifolium Bunge. • in China by MaxEnt. • Xanthoceras sorbifolium Bunge distributions were compared under human interference and climate change conditions. • The soil type, precipitation, soil acidity, altitude and human footprint dominantly affected distribution. • Xanthoceras sorbifolium Bunge will likely migrate northeast and southwest and to lower elevations in the future.