Climate Shocks and India's Agricultural Export Performance

ABSTRACT Climate change increasingly disrupts trade flows, particularly in countries dependent on climate‐sensitive agriculture, underscoring structural vulnerabilities. This Letter quantifies the elasticity of India's agricultural exports with respect to key climate stressors—precipitation anomalies, extreme weather events, and cumulative temperature variations—using a Poisson pseudo‐maximum likelihood gravity model with fixed effects. All three‐climate stressors negatively and significantly affect export performance, with precipitation anomalies causing the steepest decline. The estimated elasticities offer timely, policy‐relevant insights into the climate vulnerability of India's agricultural trade and inform the formulation of adaptive trade strategies under climate risk.