THE EFFECT OF SOYBEAN PRICES AND CHICKEN MEAT PRICES ON SOYBEAN IMPORTS WITH SOYBEAN CONSUMPTION AS AN INTERVENING VARIABLE 2002-2023

As the main raw material for various processed products such as tempeh and tofu, soybean is one of the strategic commodities in the national food industry. However, domestic price fluctuations and investment losses are still major issues affecting price and stock stability. In addition, the price of other commodities, such as chic ken meat, also has a negative impact on public consumption. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of chicken meat and soybean prices on soybean value using soybean consumption as an intervening variable. This study uses time series data from 2002 to 2023, with variables analyzed including domestic soybean prices, chicken prices, soybean consumption, and soybean imports. The analysis technique used is Structural Equation Modeling (SEM), which is based on path analysis and conducted using R software with lavaan package. Prior to analysis, the data were subjected to multivariate normality test using the Mardia Test to ensure a good SEM model. The findings of this study show that soybean prices and chicken meat prices have a significant impact on soybean consumption. In conclusion, soybean consumption has a significant impact on the value of soybeans. The indirect effect of soybean prices on soybean imports is 0.18 units through soybean consumption, while the indirect effect of chicken meat prices is 0.19 units. The model is said to be fit with a CFI value of 0.99, RMSEA of 0.03 and SRMR of 0.02. The implication of this study is that the stability of soybean and chicken meat prices can indirectly affect soybean volume through changes in domestic consumption patterns. Therefore, more integrated price and production policies are needed in the country to reduce import dependence and maintain soybean based food security.