Analyzing Possible Shifts in the Climatic Niche of Pomacea canaliculata Between Native and Chinese Ranges

The impact of invasive alien species (IAS) is one of the direct factors causing global biodiversity decline and economic losses, and predicting the potential invasion risks of invasive species is crucial for developing prevention and control strategies. In recent years, an increasing number of studies have shown that invasive species undergo rapid shifts in climate niche in invaded areas. Accurately quantifying the dynamic shifts in the climate niche of invasive species in invaded areas is crucial for developing a more accurate framework for early warning of invasive species risks. <i>Pomacea canaliculata</i> is a freshwater snail found in South America and has become one of the most aggressive aquatic species in the world. Since its introduction to China in 1981, it has rapidly spread and caused multiple serious damages to agriculture, ecology, and public health. Therefore, based on multi-source distribution data of <i>P. canaliculata</i>, this study calculated the climate niche overlap by Schoener' s <i>D</i>, quantified the niche shifts between the <i>P. canaliculata</i> in native and invaded areas (China) via the COUE scheme (a unified terminology representing niche centroid shift, overlap, unfilling, and expansion), and analyzed their changes on a time scale. The results revealed that there have been significant climate niche shifts (Schoener's <i>D</i> < 0.2, niche similarity tests <i>p</i> > 0.01, niche equivalence tests <i>p</i> < 0.01) between the native and invaded areas (China) of <i>P. canaliculata</i>, which does not support the climate niche conservation hypothesis. The minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio 6) and precipitation seasonality (Bio 15) were the key climate variables driving the climatic niche shift, and <i>P. canaliculata</i> can survive in colder and more arid regions than their native counterparts. The changes in the niche shifts in <i>P. canaliculata</i> on a time scale show significant temporal heterogeneity, and its invasion behavior in China presents a discontinuous and phased expansion pattern, with strong adaptability to new environments. The results are of great significance for the future development of more accurate ecological niche model (ENM), the formulation of more targeted prevention and control strategies, and the study of adaptive evolution mechanisms of invasive species.