Bayesian Network-Driven Risk Assessment and Reinforcement Strategy for Shield Tunnel Construction Adjacent to Wall–Pile–Anchor-Supported Foundation Pit

With the increasing demand for urban rail transit capacity, shield tunneling has become the predominant method for constructing underground metro systems in densely populated cities. However, the spatial interaction between shield tunnels and adjacent retaining structures poses significant engineering challenges, potentially leading to excessive ground settlement, structural deformation, and even stability failure. This study systematically investigates the deformation behavior and associated risks of retaining systems during adjacent shield tunnel construction. An orthogonal multi-factor analysis was conducted to evaluate the effects of grouting pressure, grout stiffness, and overlying soil properties on maximum surface settlement. Results show that soil cohesion and grouting pressure are the most influential parameters, jointly accounting for over 72% of the variance in settlement response. Based on the numerical findings, a Bayesian network model was developed to assess construction risk, integrating expert judgment and field monitoring data to quantify the conditional probability of deformation-induced failure. The model identifies key risk sources such as geological variability, groundwater instability, shield steering correction, segmental lining quality, and site construction management. Furthermore, the effectiveness and cost-efficiency of various grouting reinforcement strategies were evaluated. The results show that top grouting increases the reinforcement efficiency to 34.7%, offering the best performance in terms of both settlement control and economic benefit. Sidewall grouting yields an efficiency of approximately 30.2%, while invert grouting shows limited effectiveness, with an efficiency of only 11.6%, making it the least favorable option in terms of both technical and economic considerations. This research provides both practical guidance and theoretical insight for risk-informed shield tunneling design and management in complex urban environments.