Optimization of CMIP6 Precipitation Projection Based on Bayesian Model Averaging Approach and Future Urban Precipitation Risk Assessment: A Case Study of Shanghai

Urban flooding, intensified by climate change, poses significant threats to sustainable development, necessitating accurate precipitation projections for effective risk management. This study utilized Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to optimize CMIP6 multi-model ensemble precipitation projections for Shanghai, integrating Delta statistical downscaling with observational data to enhance spatial accuracy and reduce uncertainty. After downscaling, RMSE values of daily precipitation for individual models range from 10.158 to 12.512, with correlation coefficients between −0.009 and 0.0047. The BMA exhibits an RMSE of 8.105 and a correlation coefficient of 0.056, demonstrating better accuracy compared to individual models. The BMA-weighted projections, coupled with Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) hydrological model and drainage capacity constraints, reveal spatiotemporal flood risk patterns under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 245 and SSP585 scenarios. Key findings indicate that while SSP245 shows stable extreme precipitation intensity, SSP585 drives substantial increases—particularly for 50-year and 100-year return periods, with late 21st century maximums rising by 24.9% and 32.6%, respectively, compared to mid-century. Spatially, flood risk concentrates in peripheral districts due to higher precipitation exposure and average drainage capacity, contrasting with the lower-risk central urban core. This study establishes a watershed-based risk assessment framework linking climate projections directly to urban drainage planning, proposing differentiated strategies: green infrastructure for runoff reduction in high-risk areas, drainage system integration for vulnerable suburbs, and ecological restoration for coastal zones. This integrated methodology provides a replicable approach for climate-resilient urban flood management, demonstrating that effective adaptation requires scenario-specific spatial targeting.