Integrated Risk Assessment in Construction Contracts: Comparative Evaluation of Risk Matrix and Monte Carlo Simulation on a High-Rise Office Building Project

This study investigates the application of two complementary risk analysis methods—risk matrix and Monte Carlo simulation—in the context of a large-scale office building construction project. The paper explores the theoretical and practical aspects of construction risk, focusing on how probabilistic and qualitative tools can support informed decision-making. Twelve key risks, including both threats and opportunities, were identified and quantified using expert judgment and historical data. The risk matrix provided an initial prioritization of risk severity and likelihood, while Monte Carlo simulations allowed for the modeling of uncertainty in cost outcomes across a probabilistic spectrum. The results indicate a high level of consistency between the methods, with both identifying value engineering as a dominant opportunity and network documentation errors as critical threats. Monte Carlo simulations further revealed that under proper risk management, the project is likely to avoid additional cost overruns with 60% certainty. This integrated approach provides practical insights for contractors and project managers seeking to enhance the robustness of risk assessment in complex construction environments.