Congenital syphilis: time trend analysis and projection of cases

Abstract Objective to analyze the temporal trend of congenital syphilis in a Brazilian state and project cases until 2025. Methods A time series and projection study using data from the state of Rio Grande do Norte, involving all cases of congenital syphilis notified in the state through the Notifiable Diseases Information System and the Live Births Information System from 2008 to 2022. The eight Regional Public Health Units in the state were used as the unit of analysis. The simple moving average smoothing technique and the time trend equation were used to obtain future values for the state. For this study, h=3 was used, as the calculated forecast was up to 2025. Results Most cases were female, brown, asymptomatic, diagnosed under the age of 1 month and living in urban areas. Regarding the forecast number of cases, by 2025 there should be a relative stabilization of cases in the 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 7th and 8th Regions. Only the 1st Region showed a slight upward trend until 2025, with a range of 45.99 to 302.36 cases per thousand live births, with a peak in 2025. Conclusion The state’s challenges in meeting the targets set are highlighted. In addition, the methods used favored the analysis of congenital syphilis cases to identify the Health Regions with the highest incidences, suggesting the obstacles faced in them.