Assessing the Available Landslide Susceptibility Map and Inventory for the Municipality of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: Potentials and Challenges for Data-Driven Applications

This study presents an initial evaluation of the heuristic landslide susceptibility map for the Municipality of Rio de Janeiro by comparing it with the official landslide inventory. The objective is to provide a first analysis of the accuracy of the current map (Reference Map), which was developed using heuristic methods, in contrast with a basic predictive model based on Generalized Additive Models (GAMs). The study includes a critical review of the existing inventory and examines landslide records from 2010 to 2016, using georeferenced data provided by the GeoRio Foundation. Data from 2017 and 2018 are used for a preliminary test of the model. Rather than proposing a replacement, this study suggests that even simple data-driven models can offer useful insights into potential improvements in the reference susceptibility map. The results are exploratory and intended to inform future, more detailed analyses. While limited in scope, this work illustrates how quantitative approaches may complement existing methods in landslide prediction assessment.