A Proactive Framework for Identifying At-Risk Affordable Housing in High-Pressure Markets

A wave of expiring Project-Based Rental Assistance (PBRA) contracts threatens the U.S. affordable housing stock. Existing preservation tools are reactive and calendar-based, providing little insight into where risk is most severe or why. We introduce a proactive diagnostic framework to identify at-risk properties using a multidimensional Vulnerability Score that quantifies risk by combining an owner’s financial motive (the rent gap) with market opportunity (low vacancy and high cost burden). Analyzing 2,805 census tracts, we identify three statistically distinct risk tiers: Low Risk, Medium Risk (emerging risk), and High Risk. Risk is not monolithic but has distinct drivers, with the highest vulnerability concentrated in gentrifying, racially diverse neighborhoods. The highest concentration of for-profit ownership occurs in Medium Risk neighborhoods with high poverty rates, creating conditions where displacement pressures build in advance of contract expiration decisions. This method equips planners with a replicable, evidence-based tool to strategically target interventions.