Revolution or trap? Long-term diffusion of bioplastics in China: Economic losses, health benefits, and policy pathways based on a multi-module CGE-LCA model

Bioplastics, which are made from crops and are biodegradable, are considered a sustainable alternative to petroleum-based plastics for reducing emissions and pollution. However, there is currently insufficient systematic assessment of the long-term economic, health, and environmental impacts, as well as the long-term policy effects and consumer diffusion patterns, of large-scale promotion of bioplastics in different regions of China. To address this gap, this study developed a multi-regional dynamic simulation framework integrating a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model (CGE), life cycle assessment (LCA), and consumer social network analysis. It employed the value of statistical life (VSL) method to quantify health benefits. The results indicate that the promotion of bio-based plastics may lead to a decrease of approximately 0.0157 % in China's gross domestic product (GDP) by 2052, with reductions in income for enterprises, residents, and the government of approximately 0.014 %, 0.012 %, and 0.013 %, respectively. However, over 30 years, health costs could be reduced by approximately 44.8 billion yuan (a decrease of 8.68 %), partially offsetting the economic losses. Additionally, bio-based plastics significantly reduce carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions intensity by 7.71 % and terrestrial ecological toxicity by 9.74 %, among other emissions, but significant regional variations exist. Coastal provinces with high production capacity (such as Guangdong and Jiangsu) exhibit non-linear relationships between emission reduction effects and production capacity due to differences in consumption patterns. Policy analysis results indicate that government subsidies are more effective than carbon taxes, and combining plastic bans with green education can further enhance emission reduction effects. Oil price fluctuations and high waste management costs also impact regional emission reduction outcomes. This study comprehensively assesses the multi-dimensional trade-offs and synergistic effects of promoting bio-based plastics in China, aiming to provide practical pathways and policy recommendations for decision-makers and the industry to achieve a sustainable transition of plastics.