Strategic insights: a system dynamics approach to analyse sustainability and cost efficiency in Indian freight transportation scenarios

Freight transportation decarbonising is one of the key challenges in climate change mitigation efforts. The modal shift is considered a widely accepted effective strategy towards reducing carbon emissions in transportation. The main focus of this paper is to analyse the modal shift policy towards freight transport decarbonisation in India. A carbon tax on road transport was proposed to promote the transport to low carbon transport modes. A system dynamics model was developed to analyse the time-dependent complex freight transportation system with the introduction of a carbon tax under three scenarios. The optimal modal share can be obtained in a fast-change scenario by 2042, with a significant reduction of 37% in carbon emission and 4% in logistics cost. The fast change scenario recommends the modal transition at a rate of 1-1.5%. These findings will support the government for proactive measures for a swift transition in line with the fast-change scenario. [Submitted: 12 October 2023; Accepted: 6 August 2024]