Strong Union or Just Friendshoring? Assessing Trade Uncertainty and Export in Türkiye and EU-27 Countries: A GWR Approach

Over the past 20 years, the world has seen several historical shocks. International trade was one of the areas most impacted by these shocks, regardless of the shocks' political, financial, or epidemiological origins. The shocks that occurred led to a higher level of uncertainty. The concept of friendshoring has also emerged as a result of efforts to forge more resilient commercial relationships and revive international trade, which has been declining in periods of rising uncertainty. This study examined the relationship between uncertainty and bilateral trade between the EU-27 and Türkiye. Using the Geographical Weighted Regression (GWR) method, it was determined whether the countries of EU-27 and Türkiye have strong trade ties during uncertain times. According to the results of the study prepared using the bilateral exports of the countries between 2003-2022 and the World Trade Uncertainty Index (WTUI) prepared by Ahir et al. (2022), the relationship between exports and uncertainty was significant only for four countries (Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and Croatia). According to these results, although the European Union (EU) is observed as a strong union, the fact that countries with close ties to each other produce important results in uncertain times shows that the idea of "frendshoring" has taken root within the EU as well.