(Wl-8179)-Poverty Decline in India after 2011-12: Bigger Picture Evidence

The absence of official poverty estimates after 2011-12 has led to a new debate about the recent evolution of poverty in India. This paper reviews the existing estimates of consumption-based poverty after 2011-12. While a wide range of estimates have been put forward, pointing to both rapid and negligible poverty decline, the paper argues that a slowing of poverty reduction after 2011-12 is most likely. A variety of complementary indicators of poverty in India are assembled and probed, focussing on trends in aggregate income, as well as wages, earnings and employment. Absent a clear resolution to the vexed issues of non-comparability of consumption over time and space, choice of poverty lines and price deflators, a precise assessment of poverty decline remains pending. But there are sufficient grounds for concern, and a doubling-down on poverty reduction efforts is clearly warranted.