Water-efficient forage production in arid regions: Environmental and economic sustainability assessment using integrated emergy and Monte Carlo analysis

This study evaluates four forage crop systems (Kochia, Millet, Sorghum, Barley) in Iran's drought-prone Sistan region using emergy analysis integrated with Monte Carlo uncertainty modeling. A number of new sustainability indices were developed specifically for water-limited agricultural environments, including the Water Efficiency Index, the Climate Resilience Factor, and the Integrated Sustainability Index. Based on Monte Carlo simulations (10,000 iterations), Barley has a 67 % probability of ranking first in sustainability across integrated environmental, economic, and water efficiency criteria. Millet demonstrated superior environmental performance while Kochia showed exceptional climate resilience. Multi-objective optimization indicated that diversified strategies with 30 % Barley allocation optimize system sustainability rather than monoculture approaches. This framework provides agricultural stakeholders with probabilistic decision-support tools for adapting forage systems to increasing water scarcity and climate uncertainty. • First integration of emergy analysis with Monte Carlo uncertainty modeling for agricultural sustainability. • Novel water-specific indices (WEI, CRF, ISI) developed for arid region agriculture. • Barley emerges as optimal crop with 67 % probability of superior sustainability performance. • Diversified cropping strategy with 30 % Barley allocation recommended for system resilience. • Framework provides uncertainty-aware decision support for water-scarce agricultural planning.