Price risk of agricultural products: Evidence from Vietnam robusta coffee

This article aims to investigate factors influencing the price volatility of domestic Robusta coffee in Vietnam. By using monthly data from January 2023 to March 2025 and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, this study shows that Robusta coffee futures price and weather conditions have positive impacts on the price risk of domestic Robusta coffee, while there is no evidence on the role of input costs, international coffee price and exchange rate. The empirical outcomes totally support the price discovery of futures and the increasingly important role of climate for changes in agricultural products’ prices. Moreover, this study offers some suggestions for policy makers and coffee producers to efficiently manage price risks of Robusta coffee in the Vietnam domestic market.