Estimation of Boating Carrying Capacity for Recreational Fishing as a Conservation Tool for Caribbean Flats Fishing and Other Fisheries

ABSTRACT We used an innovative mixed‐methods approach as a solid reference for capacity assessments in comparable contexts of socio‐ecological systems. Our study focused on using the flats fishery and other sectors in the Rio Lagartos Biosphere Reserve in Yucatán, México to model and compare the Optimal Boating Density, hierarchical Cifuentes' Effective Carrying Capacity, and Monte Carlo spatial simulation models. The latter is proposed as novel as it compares three different angling quality scenarios (minimum of 14 and maximum of 28 boats per day) and 9 and 13 boats for best angling quality and experience with a 95% confidence interval. Our findings emphasize the importance of integrating biological, physical, social, and spatial factors for effective management of fisheries and tourism activities in protected marine areas. Overall, we provide managers with immediate, actionable numerical guidelines that can be part of a strategic plan that incorporates marine resource users, promotes cooperation across sectors, and ensures regulations are adaptive and provide long‐term benefits to local communities.