Assessing Land Use/Land Cover Change, Drivers, and Community-Based Interventions for Sustainable Water Availability in the Kidunda River Catchment, Ruvu Basin

Water availability in sub-Saharan Africa is increasingly threatened by rapid land use and land cover (LULC) changes, particularly within ecologically sensitive areas which are potential areas providing vital hydrological services, and supporting high biodiversity and varieties of ecosystem services. This study assessed spatial and temporal LULC changes, their underlying drivers, and potential community-based interventions in the Kidunda River Catchment, a key upstream area within Tanzania’s Wami-Ruvu Basin where the Kidunda Dam is planned to enhance downstream water supply. Using Landsat imagery from 1994, 2005, 2016, and 2024, supervised classification with Random Forest algorithms was applied to detect LULC transitions. Results revealed a significant decline in forest (60.11%) and wetland (68.75%) cover, accompanied by a substantial expansion of cultivated land (226.82%) and built-up areas (196.03%). The most dominant conversion pathways were woodland and wetland to cultivated land, indicating intense anthropogenic pressure. Qualitative data from focus group discussions and key informant interviews identified population growth, agricultural expansion, and weak enforcement as key drivers of change. However, a slight slowdown in LULC transformation observed after 2016 coincided with the gazettement of Nyerere National Park, suggesting that policy interventions can yield positive outcomes. Community-driven solutions such as participatory land use planning, agroforestry, and soil and water conservation were highlighted as effective strategies for landscape restoration and water security. The findings underscore the urgent need for integrated catchment management and localized interventions to safeguard the ecological functions of the catchment and ensure the long-term sustainability of the Kidunda Dam and downstream water supplies.