Characteristics of Historical Studies Using System Dynamics : Take the relationship between infectious diseases and history

Simulation methodology in history is still in the experimental stage. Therefore, it is too early to definitively evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of this method, but an accurate understanding of its characteristics can give a new impetus to stagnant history. In particular, the “SDM (System Dynamics Model)” can analyze the interactions between various factors in history using quantitative data, and advances in digital technology have enabled dynamic and evolutionary factors such as environment, disease, and production to be applied to historical events. SDM simulates events based on data-based functional relationships, but due to this, fine and complex individual elements are difficult to deal with. “Actor-based model (ABM)” exists to compensate for these limitations, but this paper focuses on SDM. Both SDM and ABM can be used in Postan theory verification, but the same hypothesis may have different results depending on the model construction method. For example, the fact that the development pattern of the Black Death through SDM is not a simple population decline but appears as three waves is an example of emergence. Unlike traditional history, historical simulations are characterized by being able to perform “historical experiments” based on functional relationships between specific elements. At this time, the role of the historian stays in selecting the elements, and the computer algorithm defines the relationship. The algorithm formed in this way becomes the starting point for a new historical debate. However, complex and subjective elements such as human psychology and judgment are not yet fully reflected technically and are limited to objective data-oriented analysis such as climate, disease, and population. His tory is a dis cipline that is at the boundary between literature and science, and has walked a tightrope between lawfulness and contingency. Since modern times, history has leaned toward postmodernism centered on subjectivity and interpretation, but simulation methods such as SDM can supplement the limits of the historian's perception and breathe new life into the structuralist view of history through computer-based complex system theory. The quantification and representation of objective elements suggest the possibility of opening new horizons in historical research.