Analysis of Proposed Policies to Develop the Dairy Sector in Egypt and Their Role in Enhancing Egyptian Food Security

The research aims to examine the feasibility of achieving self-sufficiency in milk production in Egypt by analyzing the trends and structure of the dairy sector during the period (2005–2023). Identifying the key economic factors influencing milk output and evaluating the effectiveness of proposed development policies. The results revealed a persistent milk production gap averaging around 772.7 thousand tons annually. Despite a self-sufficiency ratio of approximately 88.2%. The per capita milk consumption showed a declining trend. Mainly due to the low productivity of local cow and buffalo breeds compared to imported high-yielding breeds. The research employed both descriptive and quantitative analytical methods including time trend analysis and multiple regression models to estimate the impact of various economic variables such as green fodder area. dry feed quantity and wholesale milk prices. The findings highlighted these as the most influential determinants. A simulation of a partial (25%) replacement of local breeds with high-yielding breeds demonstrated the potential to generate a surplus of 4.3 million tons annually. The research concluded with several policy recommendations including a gradual shift towards improved breeds development of feed systems strengthening milk supply chains and marketing infrastructure and the adoption of a comprehensive national strategy with robust monitoring and evaluation mechanisms. Collectively these strategies represent a viable pathway for achieving milk food security in Egypt.