Who leaves and who returns? IDPs and returnees after the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Abstract What factors are associated with internal displacement and return after a sudden foreign invasion? The literature on conflict-driven displacement has primarily focused on how civil wars affect external migration, identifying social networks and exposure to violence as the primary reasons for displacement. A rapid invasion by a foreign power may paint a different picture. At the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, millions fled to other parts of Ukraine or abroad. As Ukraine recaptured territory and the front lines stabilized, many returned. This study assesses the demographics of IDPs and returnees through a survey conducted in Ukraine in May and June 2022. IDPs were more educated and less likely to take the survey in Russian. Respondents who had more favorable attitudes about the incumbent president and held anti-democratic views were more likely to return after displacement. IDPs who left and then returned were more likely to be younger and more educated than respondents who never left. The findings suggest the effects of income, networks, violence, education, language, and political opinion on both displacement and return during rapid international invasions are somewhat similar to civil conflicts, but are also more complex than previously thought.