Transition without transformation? The strategic limits of NextGenerationEU green-digital transition plans

This article critically examines the strategic vision underpinning NextGenerationEU (NGEU) and its ambition of promoting a green-digital transition. Through a discourse and policy analysis of EU-level documents, alongside national plans from Italy, Spain, and France, the article identifies a central tension between two competing narratives: (1) recovery, which prioritizes short-term responses to the Covid-19 crisis and bolstering resilience to future shocks; and (2) modernization, which centers on long-term, technology-driven economic transformation and the pursuit of technological sovereignty. While EU policymakers present these narratives as complementary, the article argues that they are, in practice, contradictory. Furthermore, the architecture of NGEU reveals a fragmented approach, with a high number of different measures and investments, and an emphasis on technology adoption rather than on expanding technological productive capacities. This misalignment reflects broader contradictions within post-neoliberal governance in Europe: ambitious goals constrained by inadequate funding, technological dependence, and a limited break from austerity-era policies.