SCENARIO MODELING OF THE DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY FOR THE MARKET OF MONOCLONAL ANTIBODY-BASED MEDICINAL PRODUCTS

The use of scenario-based approaches in strategic planning for the development of the pharmaceutical market or its individual segments has necessitated the modeling of this process. The aim of the study is to model the strategic development of the market for monoclonal antibody-based medicinal products (mAbs) using an adapted scenario planning system (Scenario Planning, SP) in the TAIDA format. Materials and methods: the research draws upon conceptual principles and methodologies of Scenario Planning (SP), strategic planning, project management (Project Management Institute, PMI), systems and agile approaches (Agile), functional modeling, structural analysis and design techniques (Structured Analysis and Design Technique, SADT), as well as modern methods of strategic planning, modeling, and systems analysis. As a result of the study, the reformatting of the SP system and subsequent modeling enabled the development of a scenario-based model for the strategic development of the mAb-based medicinal products market, allowing for various development pathways under conditions of uncertainty. The model is structured into four functional blocks: target, preparatory, core, and final. Each block defines specific activities, and three core components were developed within the core block: the SP process component, the key components of the SP system, and the SP monitoring and control component. Implementation of the TAIDA algorithm facilitated a more comprehensive synergistic integration between the elements of the SP system, PMI management processes, and stages of the SP process. Conclusion: the proposed model is specifically oriented toward the market of monoclonal antibody-based medicinal products; however, certain elements may be applied in the development and implementation of strategic plans for the pharmaceutical market as a whole or within its other segments.