Prediction of Ecological and Economic Impact of a Fuel-to-Electric Bus Engine Transition– With a Case Study of Shanghai

Replacing fuel buses with electric buses is a key step for sustainable development. From the perspectives of both firms and the government, the process requires quantitative analysis to understand its ecological and economic impacts. However, current studies lack certain analysis, which hinders their ability to understand the benefits and make valuable decisions. In this paper, we study the ecological and economic impacts. First, we establish an ecological model to evaluate the reduction in harmful emissions resulting from bus conversion. Next, we build the economic model to calculate the cost of electric bus purchases and the construction of charging stations. Last, we integrate ecological and economic models to quantitatively analyze the long-term benefits of the fuel-to-electric bus engine transition. We also include a case study with empirical data from Shanghai to illustrate the real-world application of our model. This comprehensive approach enables a deeper comprehension of the transition’s benefits, supporting more cases for sustainable urban transportation solutions.