Macroeconomic determinants and working capital credit for micro-enterprises: evidence from Poland

Abstract This paper investigates the macroeconomic determinants influencing the demand and value of working capital loans among micro-enterprises across five economic sectors in Poland. The main aim is to understand how various economic conditions affect the borrowing behaviour of micro-enterprises across different industry sectors. Using quarterly time series data, the research employs econometric models to analyse loan demand dynamics in relation to macroeconomic indicators such as GDP growth dynamics, general consumption, private consumption, inflation, domestic interest rates, exchange rates, salaries, unemployment rates, and trade activities. The results indicate that total consumption negatively impacts loan demand in sectors such as industrial processing and trade, whereas private consumption positively influences loan demand across all sectors. Investments generally have a negative relationship with loan demand, and exports reduce the need for loans, whereas imports increase it. The CPI is positively correlated with loan demand, and exchange rates have mixed effects, i.e. the USD/PLN rate positively impacts some sectors, whereas the EURO/PLN rate generally has a negative impact. Salaries and unemployment have various influences across sectors. The findings highlight the significant role of macroeconomic conditions in shaping the borrowing behaviour of SMEs. We show that across the analysed sectors, the volume of loan demand depends on different macroeconomic factors. Therefore, in practice, the findings indicate which sectors are likely to demand loans under specific economic conditions, thereby enabling an appropriate adjustment of the banking offer. While most studies focus on factors characterizing the financial and property situation of the enterprise, the management structure, or the level of operational risk, the study examines the economic environment in which enterprises operate and the links between changes in macroeconomic parameters and realized demand for micro-enterprise loans, taking industry differences into account.