Assessing the ability of the ECMWF seasonal prediction model to forecast extreme September-to-November rainfall events over Equatorial Africa

Abstract. This study investigates the predictability of rainfall over Equatorial Africa (EA) and evaluates the forecasting performance of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts fifth-generation seasonal forecast version 5.1 (ECMWF-SEAS5.1) for the September–November (SON) periode during 1981–2023 (43 years). The analysis considers two lead-times, focusing on initial conditions (ICs) from September and August. Regression, spatiotemporal and composite analyses are applied to highlight the relationship between extreme precipitation events over EA and the various associated atmospheric circulation drivers. The analysis reveals that ECMWF-SEAS5.1 successfully reproduces the observed annual precipitation cycle and seasonal spatial pattern of rainfall over the region for both ICs, with notably better skills for September. In addition, the model effectively captures the teleconnections between EA rainfall and tropical sea surface temperature, including the Indian Ocean dipole and El Niño-Southern Oscillation, for both ICs. Regions with highest potential predictability skills coincide with regions where the model accurately represents strong (weak) composite rainfall anomalies, associated with strong (weak) moisture flux convergence (divergence) values, although the magnitude tends to be underestimated. However, other important observed features, such as the components of the African easterly jet, are well represented by the model for the September IC, but not for August. While many atmospheric mechanisms driving precipitation in the region are well simulated, their underestimation likely explains the model’s general tendency to underestimate the magnitude of extreme rainfall events. The results of this study support efforts to improve forecast outputs in the national national weather services across the region by integrating ECMWF model outputs into operational weather bulletins.