Beyond Distance and GDP: Overcoming Invisible Barriers in Russia-Chad Trade through an Extended Gravity Model

This study employs an extended gravity model to analyze the constraints impeding Russia-Chad trade, which extend beyond conventional factors such as gross domestic product (GDP) and geographical distance. Empiri-cal evidence indicates that invisible barriers – including linguistic differences, regulatory disparities, a deficit of foreign direct investment (FDI), and infrastructural limitations – constitute a persistent 40 % gap between the observed trade volume (USD 2,18 M. in 2021) and the theoretical trade potential. Key findings result include the identified sectoral concentration of Russian exports (75,7 % in pharmaceuticals and defense industries), which significantly restricts diversification; political simulation data indicating a potential 55 % increase in trade with a 25 % reduction in barriers; and confirmation of achievable potential illustrated by France’s export experience to Chad amounting to EUR 78,8 M. in 2022. The conclusions substantiate the strategic necessity of comprehen-sive reduction of invisible barriers to realize trade potential amid strengthening bilateral relations. The proposed methodology is applicable for analyzing similar asymmetric trade pairs.