Carbon Emission Scenario Prediction for Urban Transportation Based on System Dynamics

To achieve the dual-carbon goal, low-carbon transformation of urban transportation systems is imperative. It is of far-reaching significance to study in-depth the internal mechanism of carbon emissions from urban transport, optimize the urban transport structure and reduce carbon emissions from travel. Urban transportation system is a complex, multi-level dynamic system with obvious system engineering dynamics. Therefore, the realization of the vision of “Peak Carbon” in 2030 requires not only the exploration of carbon reduction pathways oriented by roadmap, but also the design of carbon reduction nodes with timetable as the driving order. This paper employs system dynamics modeling via VENSIM software to analyze the intrinsic mechanisms of urban transportation carbon emissions and designs a baseline scenario and scenario simulations under different policies to estimate the evolution of carbon emissions from urban transportation in Shanghai in the perspective year, so as to propose actionable pathways. The results show that interventions are needed for Shanghai to reach its 2030 carbon peak target. Increasing the share of new energy passenger vehicles, encouraging the development of hybrid passenger vehicles, and optimizing the structure of traffic and travel can all play a positive role.