Green Hydrogen in the European Union – A large-scale assessment of the supply potential and economic viability

Demand for hydrogen is expected to increase in the coming years to defossilize hard-to-abate sectors. In the European Union, the question remains in which quantities and at what cost hydrogen can be produced to satisfy the growing demand. This paper applies different approaches to model costs and potentials of off-grid hydrogen production within the European Union. The modeled approaches distinguish the effects of different spatial and technological resolutions on hydrogen production potentials, costs, and prices. According to the results, the hydrogen potential within the European Union is above 6800 TWh. This figure far surpasses the expected demand range of 1423 to 1707 TWh in 2050. The cost of satisfying the demand exceeds 100 billion euro at marginal costs of hydrogen below 85 euro per megawatt-hour. Additionally, the results show that an integrated European Union market would reduce the overall system costs notably compared to a setup in which each country covers its own hydrogen demand domestically. Just a few countries would be able to supply the entire European Union’s hydrogen demand in the case of an integrated market. This finding leads to the conclusion that an international hydrogen infrastructure seems advantageous. • Analyzing technological and spatial resolution effects with four model set-ups. • Hydrogen production potential in the European Union surpasses expected demand. • Cost of satisfying the demand will exceed 100 billion euro. • Marginal cost of hydrogen will be below 85 euro per MWh.