Strategic swinging model: building a model that optimizes swinging decisions in baseball

The most important battle in baseball is the battle between the pitcher and the batter, as hitting the baseball hard and far will drastically change the outcome of a game. In this research, we are attempting to build the strategic swinging model that can help Major League Baseball (MLB) hitters decide whether they should swing at a pitch before it has been thrown. We used random forest classifiers to output a probabilistic prediction of pitch type and pitch location, and estimated how well the hitter would like the pitch based on his past batting data. We evaluated the model by calculating how much better it performed compared to the scenario in which the batter did the opposite. The model outperformed any random swinging strategy. However, the decisions of most above average hitters are better than the model's decisions.

Authors

Institutions

Publication Details

Journal
Journal of Student Research
Published
2025-02-28
DOI
https://doi.org/10.47611/jsr.v14i1.2856
Primary Topic
Gambling Behavior and Treatments
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00
Controls
|||
ALL TIME
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
article

Strategic swinging model: building a model that optimizes swinging decisions in baseball

Henry Zhan, Alex Lyford
Journal of Student Research
Gambling Behavior and Treatments
article

Strategic swinging model: building a model that optimizes swinging decisions in baseball

Henry Zhan, Alex Lyford
article en

Abstract

The most important battle in baseball is the battle between the pitcher and the batter, as hitting the baseball hard and far will drastically change the outcome of a game. In this research, we are attempting to build the strategic swinging model that can help Major League Baseball (MLB) hitters decide whether they should swing at a pitch before it has been thrown. We used random forest classifiers to output a probabilistic prediction of pitch type and pitch location, and estimated how well the hitter would like the pitch based on his past batting data. We evaluated the model by calculating how much better it performed compared to the scenario in which the batter did the opposite. The model outperformed any random swinging strategy. However, the decisions of most above average hitters are better than the model's decisions.

Journal of Student ResearchVol. 14(1)
Middlebury College (US)
Openalex Percentile: Top 69%
Gambling Behavior and Treatments
AI Navigator

Ask Laika to Summarize, Analyze, and Connect papers live on the map.

Summarize Papers & Methodologies

Extract key findings, datasets, and comparative methods across publications.

Benchmark Rankings & Visual Analytics

Rank top research institutions, authors, funders, topics, and journals by Field-Weighted Citation Impact (FWCI) and paper volume with instant charts.

Connect Distant Disciplines

Bridge topological clusters on the map to find hidden collaborative intersections.