End of world beliefs are common, diverse, and predict how people perceive and respond to global risks.

Do you believe the world would come to an end within your lifetime, and does that belief change the way you see existential threats to humanity? For many people, this question resonates as real and pressing. Stories about the end of world beliefs are historically and globally prevalent, but come in many flavours: How soon will it end? What will cause it? Is it avoidable? And what will come afterwards? These beliefs have been hypothesized to be linked with a variety of social perception and behavior, from passive comfort to revolutionary violence. Despite their cultural significance, current understanding of the psychology of these beliefs is lacking. In this article, we present the results of six pilot studies (N = 2,079) and one large pre-registered study (N = 1,409) that establish a psychological framework for end of world beliefs. A measure of end of world beliefs was created and validated across six religious populations (Catholics, Mainline Protestants, Evangelical Protestants, Jews, Muslims, and nonreligious). We find that end of world beliefs are common, vary along several meaningful dimensions, and are uniquely predictive of people’s risk perception, risk tolerance, and willingness to support extreme action to address the five most pressing global existential risks (i.e., economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal, and technological). Results are interpreted in light of current models of risk perception and the cultural evolution of worldviews. Belief in apocalyptic narratives—irrespective of their accuracy—is consequential for how different populations confront concrete risks that threaten humanity today.

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Publication Details

Published
2025-08-14
DOI
https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/hq59n_v1
Primary Topic
Risk Perception and Management
Type
article
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article

End of world beliefs are common, diverse, and predict how people perceive and respond to global risks.

Ara Norenzayan, Azim Shariff, Cindel White, Matthew I. Billet
Risk Perception and Management
article

End of world beliefs are common, diverse, and predict how people perceive and respond to global risks.

Ara Norenzayan, Azim Shariff, Cindel White, Matthew I. Billet
article en

Abstract

Do you believe the world would come to an end within your lifetime, and does that belief change the way you see existential threats to humanity? For many people, this question resonates as real and pressing. Stories about the end of world beliefs are historically and globally prevalent, but come in many flavours: How soon will it end? What will cause it? Is it avoidable? And what will come afterwards? These beliefs have been hypothesized to be linked with a variety of social perception and behavior, from passive comfort to revolutionary violence. Despite their cultural significance, current understanding of the psychology of these beliefs is lacking. In this article, we present the results of six pilot studies (N = 2,079) and one large pre-registered study (N = 1,409) that establish a psychological framework for end of world beliefs. A measure of end of world beliefs was created and validated across six religious populations (Catholics, Mainline Protestants, Evangelical Protestants, Jews, Muslims, and nonreligious). We find that end of world beliefs are common, vary along several meaningful dimensions, and are uniquely predictive of people’s risk perception, risk tolerance, and willingness to support extreme action to address the five most pressing global existential risks (i.e., economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal, and technological). Results are interpreted in light of current models of risk perception and the cultural evolution of worldviews. Belief in apocalyptic narratives—irrespective of their accuracy—is consequential for how different populations confront concrete risks that threaten humanity today.

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Risk Perception and Management
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End of world beliefs are common, diverse, and predict how people perceive and respond to global risks. — Ara Norenzayan, Azim Shariff, et al. · (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS