Are non-democracies taking over? Autocratization and international organization membership

Broad scholarly consensus exists that the third wave of democratization had an important role in the expansion of power and influence of international organizations (IOs). The ongoing decline of democracy worldwide has sparked an extensive debate about the reversal of this development. In this paper, we argue that a systematic understanding of the relationship between changes in regime type and IO membership composition is a prerequisite for the assessment of the consequences of domestic autocratization for IOs. Conceptually, we compare the strengths and weaknesses of three different approaches to measure IO membership composition: democratic density, critical thresholds, and changes of regime subtypes. Empirically, we explore to what extent autocratization has already led to changes in the membership composition of 73 IOs between 2000 and 2020. We find that democratic density has not changed dramatically, but the declining trend affects many organizations. Second, formerly homogeneous democratic clubs, like the European Union, have become heterogenous, endangering parts of their foundational identity, while several global IOs have lost a democratic majority. Third, an increase in regime changes toward electoral democracies constitutes one of the most significant developments after 2010, revealing that democratic membership is under greater pressure than other measures suggest.