Impacts of shifting from double- to single-cropping systems on rice output in China

Double-season rice is a key element of intensive rice production in China, playing an essential role in ensuring national food security. However, urbanization and economic development in recent years have led to a decline in the rural labor force and increased production costs, resulting in a shift from double- to single-season rice. To assess the impact of this shift on rice output in China, yield differences between double- and single-season rice, the area shifting from double- to single-season rice, and the rice output losses caused by this shift from 2003 to 2022 were analyzed by using data collected from the database of the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The findings revealed that the yield difference between double- to single-season rice widened significantly from 2003 to 2018, increasing at a rate of 61 kg ha –1 per year, before stabilizing. The shift from double- to single-season rice began in 2006, occurring at an annual rate of 0.14–1.36 million ha. This shift resulted in rice output losses of 0.57–6.37 million t (Mt) per year, with an average yearly loss of 2.72 Mt. Given the challenges in reversing the decline of double-season rice area, the saturation of high-yielding varieties, and ongoing changes in socioeconomic and climatic conditions, it is crucial to increase yield per unit area by developing efficient large-scale farming techniques and climate-smart technologies to address the shift from double- to single-season rice. Additionally, ratooning technology could offer a viable solution, provided the challenges related to stabilizing high yields in the second season of ratoon rice are overcome. • The shift from double- to single-season rice in China began in 2006. • Yield differences between double- and single-season rice in China were quantified. • Rice output losses from the cropping system shift in China were assessed. • Strategies to address challenges of the rice system shift in China were proposed.