Unveiling the Impacts of China’s Carbon Reduction Policies on Emerging Air Pollutants under Technological Uncertainties

China’s ambitious carbon mitigation targets, aimed at achieving peak CO2 emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060, not only contribute to global climate efforts but also yield significant air pollution cobenefits. This study develops a China Air-Pollutant Computable General Equilibrium model, integrated with Monte Carlo simulations, to assess the effectiveness of carbon tax policies and technological advancements in reducing multiple air pollutants under uncertainty. The analysis considers emissions from eight key air pollutants, with particular attention to three emerging pollutants: black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Our findings indicate that an 80% reduction in carbon emissions by 2060, compared to 2020 levels, would require a carbon tax exceeding $120 per ton, leading to a 40%–50% decrease in emerging air pollutants. Additionally, under shared socioeconomic pathway 4–representative concentration pathway 6.0 (SSP4-RCP6.0), improvements in total factor productivity and autonomous energy-efficiency improvement contribute to the emission reductions of BC, OC, and VOCs by 7%, 12%, and 18%, respectively, compared to SSP1-RCP2.6 without a carbon tax, while achieving the same emission targets. These improvements also lower the required carbon tax by 30% relative to high-emission scenarios (SSP5-RCP8.5 and SSP3-RCP7.0). This study provides valuable insights for designing cost-effective carbon mitigation strategies that balance economic growth, energy-efficiency improvements, and air-pollution control. The results are particularly relevant for policymakers in China and other developing countries seeking integrated solutions to address both carbon and air-pollutant reductions under technological uncertainties.