Assessing the Future of Physical Libraries in Higher Education: A Trend and Forecast Analysis of a College Library Usage Using ARIMA

This study explores the future of physical libraries in higher education by analyzing library usage trends of Tangub City Global College, Learning Resource Center from 2021 to 2025, with forecasts extending to 2035. The research aims to understand visitation and book borrowing patterns across 12 academic programs, using time-series analysis to predict their evolution amid growing digital resource adoption. Historical data on visitation and borrowing were collected from library records and analyzed using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model in Gnu Regression, Econometrics, and Time-series Library software. Findings show an increase in utilization from 2021 to 2025, with a decline projected through 2028, leveling off at 2000–4000 visits and 300–400 borrowed books per program by 2035. While these trends indicate a move towards digital resources, these also underscore the importance of physical libraries as centers of academic activity. The conclusions support the need for allocating more digital resources alongside space reconfiguring, improving interaction, and enabling effective participation through library engagement policies to support sustainability in higher education.