Postgraduate students’ retention and survival rates between 2015 and 2024 in public Universities, Kenya

Retention and survival rates of postgraduate students are critical parameters for measuring academic progress and the achievement of graduate-level completion. Postgraduate students in Kenyan universities continue to face the challenges of late completions and low graduation rates. The present study evaluates the retention and survival patterns of postgraduate students to predict completion rates in Kenyan public universities between 2015 and 2024. The study was guided by Tinto’s Student Integration Model. A cross-sectional survey design was adopted to thoroughly analyze the relationship between retention, survival, and completion rates. The target population comprised 23,319 postgraduate students enrolled in public universities in Kenya between 2015 and 2024. The study employed purposive sampling to select universities with established postgraduate programs and documented retention data over the ten-year period. Within these institutions, stratified random sampling was used to ensure representation of students from different levels of study (Master’s and PhD), academic disciplines, and gender categories. Data collection methods included interviews, questionnaires, and document analysis. Linear regression was used to analyze quantitative data, while thematic analysis was applied to qualitative data. Instrument reliability was assessed through the test-retest method and Cronbach’s alpha coefficients, which indicated strong internal consistency. The results showed a significant increase in the retention and survival rates of postgraduate students, from 75 percent in 2015 to 87 percent in 2024, representing a relative gain of 90 percent over ten years. This upward trend indicates incremental improvements in university support networks and targeted initiatives designed to enhance student endurance and achievement. Regression analysis demonstrated that both male (B = 29.23, t = 14.51, p < 0.001) and female retention rates (B = 23.14, t = 9.73, p < 0.001) are strong, statistically significant predictors of postgraduate student retention in Kenyan public universities. Male enrollment (B = 1.02, t = 13.18, p < 0.001) and female enrollment (B = 0.82, t = 15.66, p < 0.001) also significantly impact retention. The model explains 95% of the variance (R² = 0.95), highlighting its robustness. The report establishes that improved retention and survival systems have led to higher completion rates among postgraduate students. It suggests that implementing specific support strategies, particularly those that support female postgraduate students—such as mentorship programs and professional networking opportunities—should be a priority for public universities to address current gender discrepancies and further enhance completion rates.