Civilian Evacuation During War: Evidence from Ukraine

Abstract In times of war, evacuating civilians from conflict zones is of critical importance to their survival and well-being. However, many people are hesitant to evacuate. While text-based nudges have been studied in other contexts, their effectiveness in encouraging evacuation during armed conflict remains under-explored. We conducted a controlled survey experiment in Ukraine in July 2022—during the ongoing full-scale Russian invasion—by varying the framing and informational content of automated alert messages. Our findings suggest that providing individuals with an evacuation plan in the message is crucial, while the specific framing of the message itself does not play a significant role in the perceived effectiveness of the messages.