Mechanisms of Spatial Coupling Between Plantation Species Distribution and Historical Disturbance in the Complex Topography of Eastern Yunnan

Forest disturbance is a major driver shaping the structure and function of plantation ecosystems. Current research predominantly focuses on single forest types or landscape scales. However, species-level fine-scale assessments of disturbance dynamics are still scarce. In this study, we investigated Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata), Armand pine (Pinus armandii), and Yunnan pine (Pinus yunnanensis) plantations in the mountainous eastern Yunnan Plateau. We developed a Spatial Coupling Framework of Disturbance Legacy (SC-DL) to systematically elucidate the spatial associations between contemporary species distribution patterns and historical disturbance regimes. Using the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, we reconstructed pixel-level disturbance trajectories by integrating long-term Landsat time series (1993–2024) and applying the LandTrendr algorithm. By fusing multi-source remote sensing features (Sentinel-1/2) with terrain factors, employing RFE, and performing a multi-model comparison, we generated 10 m-resolution species distribution maps for 2024. Spatial overlay analysis quantified the cumulative proportion of the historically disturbed area and the spatial aggregation patterns of historical disturbances within current species ranges. Key results include the following: (1) The model predicting disturbance year achieved high accuracy (R2 = 0.95, RMSE = 2.02 years, MAE = 1.15 years). The total disturbed area from 1993 to 2024 was 872.7 km2, exhibiting three distinct phases. (2) The random forest (RF) model outperformed other classifiers, achieving an overall accuracy (OA) of 95.17% and a Kappa coefficient (K) of 0.93. Elevation was identified as the most discriminative feature. (3) Significant spatial differentiation in disturbance types emerged: anthropogenic disturbances (e.g., logging and reforestation/afforestation) dominated (63.1% of total disturbed area), primarily concentrated within Chinese fir zones (constituting 70.2% of disturbances within this species’ range). Natural disturbances accounted for 36.9% of the total, with fire dominating within the Yunnan pine range (79.3% of natural disturbances in this zone) and drought prevailing in the Armand pine range (71.3% of natural disturbances in this zone). (4) Cumulative disturbance characteristics differed markedly among species zones: Chinese fir zones exhibited the highest cumulative proportion of disturbed area (42.6%), with strong spatial aggregation. Yunnan pine zones followed (36.5%), exhibiting disturbances linearly distributed along dry–hot valleys. Armand pine zones showed the lowest proportion (20.9%), characterized by sparse disturbances within fragmented, high-altitude habitats. These spatial patterns reflect the combined controls of topographic adaptation, management intensity, and environmental stress. Our findings establish a scientific basis for identifying disturbance-prone areas and inform the development of differentiated precision management strategies for plantations.