Estrategias financieras sostenibles para la gestión integrada de riesgos financieros de los productores agrícolas de Tungurahua en el año 2025

This study examines the factors that affect agricultural profitability in the province of Tungurahua, considering the adoption of sustainable financial strategies and structural conditions in the rural production environment. Using an ordinal logistic regression model, the relationship between variables such as access to credit, infrastructure, training, financial barriers, and organizational cohesion was analyzed in relation to the levels of profitability perceived by producers. The results show that only 14.3% of farmers reported increasing profitability in the last three years, highlighting a trend of economic stagnation. The most influential variables were the lack of collaboration among producers, infrastructure problems, and insufficient training. Although the model showed an ideal ROC curve (AUC=1.00), the confusion matrix revealed its inability to correctly predict the minority class, suggesting overfitting and high sensitivity to class imbalance. Despite this, the model clearly identifies critical areas that require intervention to improve the financial sustainability of agriculture. It is concluded that profitability is closely linked to institutional, technical, and financial conditions, and that more inclusive policies are needed that prioritize associativity, equitable access to credit, and ongoing rural training.