Spatiotemporal dynamics and multidimensional drivers of tourism development-ecological resilience coupling coordination in Jiangxi Province, China

Leveraging data from 2006–2022, this study examines Jiangxi’s tourism development (TD) and ecological resilience (ER) coupling coordination (CCD) under China’s ecological civilization agenda. Integrating SPA, PVAR, modified CCD, kernel density estimation, and XGBoost - SHAP, it constructs a hybrid framework to analyze spatiotemporal evolution and multi - dimensional drivers, focusing on dynamic interactions and nonlinear mechanisms. The research reveals the following key findings: (1) Both TD and ER have increased significantly, with marked differences in growth fluctuations across cities; spatially, a pattern of strong north and weak south is observed, along with a core radiation effect. (2) The temporal progression of CCD between TD and ER has shifted from extreme incoordination to moderate coordination. Its spatial distribution is driven by Nanchang as a single core, forming a concentric circular structure with a gradient decrease around the provincial capital. (3) Factors including the proportion of the tertiary industry, municipal public investment, per capita GDP, and vegetation coverage exert significant driving force on coordinated development and exhibit synergistic interaction effects. The added value of this study lies in revealing the evolutionary laws of the human-land relationship in Jiangxi Province, providing a policy toolkit and differentiated pathways for spatial governance of tourism-ecology systems. It also offers an interdisciplinary toolkit for balancing tourism growth and ER in eco-sensitive regions, providing policy insights for China’s ecological civilization pilot zones and beyond. • The SPA estimates tourism development-ecological resilience development index. • The coupling coordination degree presents a Nanchang-single core spatial pattern. • Ecological resilience shows an inverted N-shaped response to tourism development. • Tertiary industry proportion and municipal investment serve as key driving factors.