Research on the Impact of Green Finance on Industrial Structure Transformation and Upgrading in Zhejiang Province—The mediation effect of Government Fiscal Expenditure

This study empirically examines how green finance drives industrial upgrading in Zhejiang Province (2010-2023) through panel data analysis of 11 prefecture-level cities. Results demonstrate that a one-unit increase in the Green Finance Index (GFI) elevates the Industrial Structure Upgrading Index by 1.429 units, confirming its direct catalytic effect. Crucially, government fiscal expenditure acts as a significant partial mediator, amplifying green finance's impact via low-carbon subsidies and regulatory reinforcement. The findings validate a dual-pathway mechanism where green finance concurrently reshapes industrial structures directly through capital reallocation and indirectly through fiscal policy synergy. Practical implications highlight targeted fiscal incentives and cross-regional governance frameworks to accelerate sustainable transformation.